With apologies to The Blow Monkeys for lifting the title of their debut album, (I love a music link), for some reason this phrase popped into my head when the latest quarterly GDP figures were released showing that we have just about limped out of recession.
The political soothsayers have been having a field day showing how we were the first into recession and the last out, and that the road ahead is going to be a frankly tortuous affair. Even Alistair Darling could not rule out the possibility of a dip back into the negative almost on the eve of the election.
There has been alot of press recently about the fact tracker rate products are more “popular” than fixed rates and whilst this is undoubtedly the case, could this be a big problem in the making?
It is of course no surprise that in recent times the popularity of the fixed rate product has waned as people come to terms with the financial environment. The “as cheap as possible please” line has been even more popular than usual as not only have many clients expected that Bank Base will stay low, but also that low tracker rates now are a shot in the arm to many, helping to keep the wolf from the door.
As I trudged cautiously through the deep snow in freezing Hertfordshire it warmed the cockles of my heart to think of the New Year ahead and wonder what opportunities will present themselves.
A return of competition to the mortgage market, a rise in interest rates, further property price increases, the return of first-time buyers, a new Government, a world cup win? There are many questions to ponder.
So the silly season seems to have crept up on us and all of a sudden another year has almost flown by. It’s been a funny old year really, tough for most, with a lot of anger and frustration directed at our “leaders”. The Iraq War enquiry is in full swing, strike news abounds, war has been declared on everyone from MP’s and bankers to company directors, (see BA and Consignia for further details), and especially dear old Simon Cowell.
We all know of course that there was never going to be any changes this month in the Bank of England Base Rate, nor in the amount Quantitative Easing, but there are still some interesting forces at play.
There are still some who believe there should be a further cut next year with a further increase in Q.E., whilst others believe that inflationary pressures, especially in commodity prices amongst other things, may mean that we soon see inflation rising faster than expected, which in turn raises the spectre of increased rates quicker than expected! It remains to be seen which group will be shouting “house” first.
Andrew Montlake, Communications Director at Coreco and ‘Mortgage Personality of the Year 2008’, gives his views — honest and no holds barred — on the latest developments within the mortgage and property markets.
