In anyone’s eyes the last few weeks have been an extraordinary news cycle. Phone hacking, the closure of the best selling UK paper, European crises, the carnage in Norway and of course the tragedy of Amy. Now the frightening prospect of the US defaulting on their loans, due to nothing more than political wrangling, threatening the world economy.
It’s enough to leave us all thinking that anything else is a little mundane, however it is far from it. If anything it tells us to make the most of everyday life, to worry only about the things we can control, to rejoice in the mundane and make it as fun and worthwhile as we possibly can.
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Whilst the Bank of England’s’ Monetary Policy Committee, (MPC) has decided to keep Base Rate on hold at the historic low, the endless and sometimes tortuous debates around “to rise or not to rise” seem to be conducted in an ever-increasing cacophony of sound.
Among the many voices trying to shout out different things at once, recent reports that the UK economy has been “running out of steam” seem to have done enough in the short term at least, to convince the MPC to hold their nerve.
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The latest figures from the Council of Mortgage Lenders, (CML), showing a modest improvement in the number of loans month-on-month is a welcome sight. What is more striking is the fact that loans for house purchases have increased by 49% year-on-year, albeit from a low base.
Given the amount of activity we have seen in the last few weeks, I would expect to see this figure increase further in the coming months as the traditional Spring uplift filters through.
Taken together with the latest report from the Royal Institute of Chartered Surveyors, (RICS), that says that the number of sellers has hit the highest level since May 2007 it would seem that a healthy property market is returning.
The number of loans for house purchase in February is lower than expected although given the growing sense of foreboding surrounding the big, post-Election tax rises around the corner it is understandable that people are putting the big decisions in their lives on hold.
With the General Election looming these figures suggest that property purchases will continue to tail off until a new government is firmly in place and people know who, and what, they are dealing with.
While we may see a slight uplift due to stamp duty changes for first time buyers and people buying property above £1m wanting to move before the year is out, this is unlikely to occur until after the next Budget.
In January, mortgage borrowing and housing transactions generally fell off a cliff given the sub-zero weather conditions and the end of the stamp duty holiday in December, so February’s slight uptick isn’t too much of a surprise.
Looking forward, we’re not expecting borrowing levels to accelerate significantly in the run-up to the General Election, and they may even fall back slightly post-Election.
Come the second half of the year we’ll know far more about how the mortgage and residential property markets are likely to fare in the short term.
Andrew Montlake, Communications Director at Coreco and ‘Mortgage Personality of the Year 2008’, gives his views — honest and no holds barred — on the latest developments within the mortgage and property markets.
