The Evening Standard called this an historic “Micawber Moment”, after the Dickens character in David Copperfield who “lectures on the benefits of financial prudence”.

This is actually a big deal. It shows that even though we may be over the very worst of the recession there are tough times to come, and we will not be able to simply spend our way out of it as the general public’s habits seem to be changing rapidly. A combination of sudden financial prudence in the average high street and a continued reticence by lenders to lend mean that for all the recent good news, there is still a sense of grim realism.

It is indeed a topsy-turvy time for the economy with some gloomy stories around after last week’s relatively cheery news. This bumpy rollercoaster ride towards eventual recovery is likely to be with us for a good part of 2010.

There are now two distinct parts of the market with the recession trickling down to effect the high street and the ordinary punter, whilst the top end of the market continues to poke its head gently above the clouds. This to me is a good sign, a sign that shows we are on course to come out of this in the not too distant future.

So whilst there are still hard times and clouds ahead for many, peppered by the occasional thunderstorm, the sun is at least trying to burn through.

It was said with such an air of confidence that you could not help yourself but be carried away on a euphoric wave of good feeling – hell, I almost pledged my allegiance to the American flag, (though I didn’t).

There is indeed however a lot of good news around, but also many guarded warnings and whispers of negativity. The shape of the recession is still not known and even Sir Martin Sorrell has chipped in predicting that it will look like an italicised “L” shape, though not sure if that is a capital L or a little l, I guess capital L.

This week the main news has been around house prices with Nationwide stating prices have risen for the 4th month running, and this has even been trumped by the latest “actual” figures by the Land Registry which show that house prices rose in July by 1.7%, which represents the highest monthly growth in 5 years, since July 2004 to be precise.

This gives an annual drop of 11.7%, with many commentators now suggesting prices may end the year in positive territory, which must be hard to swallow for the prophets of doom who suggested another 20% fall this year!

As we all know however, this still has a long way to run, and once more properties come on the market, especially if rates start to rise as well, and repossessions follow, then we could see a slight fall back by a few percent. Whatever happens, the great house price crash seems to be over and those hoping for a 40% + peak to trough fall will be disappointed again – how many times can they keep predicting this apocalyptic result?

Well done to the Welsh by the way, who experienced the greatest increase – must be something in the water there.

With GDP falling a little less than expected, and surveys on Confidence showing a positive return perhaps we should be feeling more comfortable that a corner has been turned.

Whether the green shoots are flower buds, or these flower buds bloom, is a matter of conjecture and endless speculation. We shall see.