The only thing we can do therefore is to put the Euro issues to one side and assume that things will remain much the way they are. In fact, if anything things are a little clearer now, especially as we have finally seen the much anticipated Mortgage Market Review and know that there is nothing really to fear there.

So whilst I agree that lending will be pretty similar to 2011 I think there are reasons to be optimistic, rather than continue to get weighed down by a dark cloud of disillusion. Whilst the doom mongers are still predicting the end of the world, especially where house prices and lending is concerned I disagree.

Mortgage costs will continue to rise slightly, whether or not the Euro issues are sorted, but for different reasons and whilst we may well slip back into a technical recession things do actually feel different to the first credit crunch. For one, lenders are still talking about lending, they still have plans to bring more products to the market and there is every sign that competition will increase, however slight it is.

Remortgage business will begin to return as borrowers get ever closer to increasing mortgage rates and a there is a massive amount of people coming off products and moving onto higher variable rates. Now that broker levels have dropped by a third, that is an awful lot of orphan clients to target. Buy To Let will continue to grow in strength.

Some lenders of course will try and fail yet again to up the amounts of business through their branch networks, especially now the FSA has rightly recognised that advice should be a cornerstone of any mortgage proposal.

In fact, Euro aside again, what is really worrying some in the City is actually the potential speed of an upturn. If the Euro does not go Kaput , if there is a feel good factor, if job losses are not as severe as thought and if the costs of QE do lead to higher inflation for longer and the global slowdown begins to turn toward the end of the year, what then?

I know that is a lot of ifs, but someone needs to think about these things. For those hard working brokers who have survived this long, the exceptionally dim light at the end of an extraordinarily long tunnel, could prove to be the brightest light for many a year.

The real issue, like an annoying soap opera you don’t really like but can’t help watching, is still playing itself out in Europe. Rumours are both good, that the IMF is preparing a EU600 billion bail out of Italy to solve its issues, (denied by the IMF for now) and bad, that ratings agencies are poised to basically downgrade the whole of Europe causing further issues, (not denied)!

The mortgage market however is still busy re-pricing upwards on-the-whole, however there are the odd moves downwards especially in the higher Loan-To-Value bracket where 85% and 90% LTV lending is improving, at least as far as the actual rates are concerned.

In the last few weeks we have seen the likes of Northern Rock, Nationwide, Woolwich, Coventry, Natwest, Halifax and Abbey all become more involved in this market which is a real boost.

There are still, however, some other lenders who see their 90% rates as mere window dressing however, in other words happily proclaiming that they support this sector of the market, but not quite for you, or you, oh and you don’t quite fit either…You get the point.

The Euro turmoil is starting to affect the biggest countries in the EU now, and for the first time in around a decade the UK is now able to borrow on cheaper terms than Germany. German 10 year government debt rates increased to 2.21% whilst the UK, relishing it’s new found “safe-haven” status, sits at a mere 2.16%.

This is hugely significant, and will up the pressure on Merkel et al to sort it all out once and for all. With the markets becoming more and more convinced of an EU zone break up of some description, the politicians seem to be stuck in a holding pattern of indecision.

Back on our fair Isle, however, although there is a growing movement against austerity cuts, there is a general acceptance that, hard as it is, these things need to be done to chart a safe passage through stormy times.

Today UK growth was confirmed at 0.5% in the 3rd quarter of this year and earlier this week the Government launched its much anticipated Housing Strategy, pulling together a range of announcements with a couple of new ones to try to stimulate growth and return some confidence back to the house building industry.

Whether you agree with the content of this or not, the point is that at last the Government is trying to do something to help stop a housing issue become a full blown crises. Having been fortunate enough to discuss the report over lunch with the Rt. Hon Grant Shapps MP yesterday at the House of Commons, it was refreshing to see the passion behind the policies.

In the meantime more lenders have increased their rates further, with at least one other lender also increasing their variable rate. We are beginning to see the expected increase in remortgage business as a result.

With rates available from just 2.29% on a tracker basis (The overall cost for comparison is 3.80% APR), or 2.58% fixed until 31/01/2014 (The overall cost for comparison is 4.70% APR), 2.94% fixed until 28/02/2015 (The overall cost for comparison is 3.50% APR) and 3.39% fixed until 31/01/2017 (The overall cost for comparison is 4.00% APR), all with free legals and free valuations, it is an excellent time to reserve some outstanding products.

My first reaction was if that was the best idea he can come up with then we are all up the proverbial creek without a you know what. In reverting back to an oft tried and never achieved call for 30 year mortgages we suddenly saw that actually, no one in power at least, seems to really get the issues.

Alastair Darling said much the same thing in 2007 and was duly obliged by a couple of lenders offering 25 year fixes at the 6.39% level. Of course there was not much take up due to the onerous penalties in the first 10 years and the additional cost, but for those that did, well it’s looking a tad expensive now.

But still, Grant Shapps said to the Building Societies Association that “Longer-term mortgages – possibly as long as 30 years – could help families on tight budgets know exactly where they stand when they are buying a home, by giving them greater certainty over how much they will be paying for their home in years to come.”

As with any advice, the problem is that for most real clients, a 30 year fix is probably not the best advice. Budgeting is all very well, but as those tied in to the previous offerings will no doubt tell you, it sometimes isn’t all it’s cracked up to be.

In today’s ever-changing times with a transient work-force, births, divorces and the like, some kind of flexibility is required and having a long-term fix with expensive tie-ins means that those who are looking to move are tied to the lender they took the product with. This may not be the best lender when they need to move or borrow more.

Mr Shapps also suggested that to get over the redemption penalty issue, lenders should cost them in to the interest rate. Ok in theory, but in practice this just makes the differential more expensive. Just a quick glance at 10 year fixes available at present, (and there are only 4 lenders I can see offering 7 such products), there is only one Skipton, who offers this at 85% LTV at a rate of 5.85%. Penalties are a massive 6% in the first 5 years.

The challenge for lenders, as always, would be to produce a cost-effective very long term fixed rate, with flexibility built in. Then you may see demand for such products rise, although not by a great deal.

So when you actually sit in front of a client and explain the pros and cons then go through the cost differentials, the majority, although not all, will opt for a cheaper and less onerous 5 year product.

My final question is what exactly, by calling for the introduction of such products, does Mr Shapps hope to actually achieve? It will not cure the issues we have in the property markets; it will not mean more homes are being built; it will not help a workforce that may need to move to where the jobs are and it most definitely help increase flexibility to deal with whatever life throws at you.

If anything it could stagnate the market further and mean that those who are on a tight budget end up paying more than they actually need to.

Whilst a healthy market undoubtedly needs a good mix of products to cater for every aspect of personal choice, there are surely more important matters to be concentrating on. Overhauling Stamp Duty, for example, would be a much better place to start.

Ha ha ha ha ha ha ha ha ha ha ha ha ha ha, (stop it, ha, my, ha, sides hurt, ha).

Actually maybe that’s a little disingenuous, as to be fair at least they are giving the impression of supporting the average mortgage borrower and their rates have been consistently attractive. However, in making this comment whilst trying to put the proverbial boot in to mortgage brokers who they clearly see as an irritant, (who needs independent advice pah, advice is for wimps), they are opening themselves up to closer inspection.

So, if 9 out of 10 people who go through their door genuinely go on to get a mortgage offer then that is brilliant. It is so brilliant because it means that there is no mortgage issue at all and I would urge everyone who needs a mortgage, first-time buyers, foreign nationals, the self-employed, those at high loan-to-values, those whose income is from multiple sources, who need a guarantor, who may have a little credit blip, who are on a Visa, who need to stretch beyond the published 4.5 times income multiples, etc, to get down to a branch pronto before the queues get too long. You get my drift.

I have no issue with the fact that HSBC do not deal with brokers, seriously I don’t. Of course I would love them to and even sent a cheeky email to them recently asking them for a pilot, but I don’t like the fact that a 1st time buyer or anytime buyer for that matter, can take out the biggest debt they are ever going to have without getting any advice.

I also have an issue with blind stats like 9 out of 10 blah blah. The reality is probably this :-

“Of the people we see that come through our door for a mortgage, who, after speaking to our mortgage “specialist” to confirm they fit our published mortgage criteria and can demonstrate their affordability and have a clean credit score, who we then allow to actually complete a mortgage application form, around 9 out of 10 receive an offer, perhaps not the exact offer they asked for, but an offer nonetheless.”

In truth, that is still pretty good given the market at the moment, but to give a blurred message without the full explanation when criticising others, is perhaps a little off.

So, dear HSBC, what percentage of the people who walk through the door, go online or phone up wanting a mortgage actually get the mortgage offer they asked for? I do not believe it is 90% – sorry, I just don’t. Also, how many clients accept that offer and go on to complete?

If it is true then why do, as the very wise Ben Thompson, managing director at Legal & General mortgage club, said: “…direct to consumer only mortgage products make up just 19% of all the mortgage products available in the UK and HSBC’s direct only offering represents 2% of this direct only market.”

The statement from HSBC also said that “The bank’s strategy is that it believes it is best placed to sell its own mortgages” (fair point) … “and that lender and borrower need to deal with each other during the sale process to make the best lending and borrowing decisions.”  (Well, if the lender is providing independent advice then ok, but what if the best option for the borrower is a 3 year fix and the lender only has a 2 or a 5 year?).

Even more intriguingly, Peter Dockar, head of mortgages at HSBC, said: “Mortgage customers used to rely on brokers for the best deals but this is no longer the case”.

Unfortunately this shows a misunderstanding of what brokers do. There have always been direct lenders who sometimes offer the “cheapest” headline rates, (when I started it was always Britannia). Then the pendulum swung to brokers because lenders needed the volume and quality they provided, but that is still not the point.

The point is that mortgage customers have always relied on brokers to obtain the right deal for their circumstances.

If it was just always about the lowest headline rate, well then you don’t need me. Don’t worry about the fees, penalties, flexibility, portability, suitability, potential lifestyle changes, timescale, deadlines, service etc..

In fact, if HSBC really offer a mortgage to 9 out of 10 who walk through the door, within the required timescale to secure the property, then I humbly apologise and well, to be honest you don’t need me either then.

Anyway, never mind that I’m off there now to remortgage my 90% interest only loan…er, sorry, what do you mean 2 years full accounts…?

This rise in rates I am alluding to is due to two things; firstly, as the storm in the Eurozone does its best to turn itself into a full scale hurricane of a banking crisis, because quite simply the cost of funds looks set to rise and secondly, liquidity issues are once more emerging from the shadows.

Given that almost every report seems to suggest we are heading, if not towards another full-scale recession, but a period of stagnation that feels like a recession anyway, it will come as no surprise that the MPC has decided to print more money, entering into another period of Quantitative Easing, (QE) a month earlier than initially expected. Another £75 billion, slightly more than thought, will be pumped into the system.

On the back of the US’s “Operation Twist”, which in essence involves the Fed selling short-term bonds and, here’s the twist, replacing them with longer term ones, (the result being that as more long-term bonds are purchased interest rates should fall), there was pressure on the Bank of England to do their bit.

As for the Euro issues turning into a banking crisis, we have already seen the first casualty in the shape of the Belgian / French bank Dexia which is about to enter into a Northern Rock style arrangement. Although the Europeans have talked positively about supporting their banks and of course Greece, it seems the markets do not quite believe them and need to see a concrete plan of action.

All this means there is a very high probability that, whilst the UK banks are undoubtedly in a much better position that our Euro counterparts, lending levels will be affected in the coming months. Almost every lender I have spoken to has said the same; unless things change they expect funding costs to rise and therefore mortgage rates on offer will rise accordingly.

With all of this mind and whilst we are experiencing some of the lowest rates for a generation, it does seem that the time to act is now. For those looking to remortgage there are now many products that are available at less than even the lowest Standard Variable Rate and some highly competitive fixed rates.

Tracker products start at 1.98% for 2 years, (the overall cost for comparison is 4.60% APR) and fixes now start at just 1.99%, (the overall cost for comparison is 5.30% APR), which is the lowest 2 years fix anyone can remember, a fantastic 2.69% (the overall cost for comparison is 3.40% APR) for 3 years and 5 year fixes available at an astonishing 3.29% (the overall cost for comparison is 4.90% APR).

Remember most offers are valid for 3 to 6 months, so if Chancellor Merkel et al do get their act together and rates improve again there will still be options.

In truth the average consumer still feels like nothing has really changed, the technicalities of a recession are unimportant, it is how they feel and for most, things still feel tight.

However for all this talk I do get the feeling that most are taking a glass half full approach and despite the gloom the good old British spirit has kicked in. A cursory walk around the City outside our office and you can see the change. Offices are filling up, new tower buildings are being erected and bars are full in the evenings. There is an acceptance that we are where we are and we need to make the most of it.

The Mortgage market is no exception and we have been pleasantly surprised how the level of enquiries has held up over the traditional Summer lull, which quite frankly never really happened. In fact, seasonality seems to have all but disappeared, leaving a steady, though relatively flat, stream of business.

Undoubtedly this is a result of several major factors. Rates are incredibly low and all hyperbole aside, when you see fixed rates for 3 years below 3% and 5 years a smidgeon over it is hard not to react if you can. New tracker products are now lower than even the most competitive lenders’ variable rates so remortgaging is back in vogue.

The most pleasing aspect for us brokers is not just the fact that lenders are now tapping us on the shoulders and asking for more business but the return of the smaller building societies who, not able to just compete on price, are looking for new ways to lend again.

These lenders are able to eschew the frustrating tick box mentality of those banks who claim to offer the very best rates, (the reality being that clients are victims of the long, drawn out, “Yes, Yes, er No” approach), and instead offer the ability to discuss trickier cases with a real decision maker on day one.

If the property market is to kick forward once more, then this lending is essential in the new world where credit and risk rules the roost.

Of course there are still potential dangers ahead; although the reality is that in the short-term at least, inflation and potential interest rate rises are low down the list. With the US making clear that they do not expect to raise their rates until 2013 there is every likelihood, especially with weakening growth figures, that the UK will not see a rate rise until mid 2012.

So, whilst everyone knows that the next change in interest rates will be upwards, we could be seeing a further round of Quantitative Easing before we see a rate rise.

The threat is actually a second retreat by lenders triggered by, for example, a further disintegration in Europe or the mighty Bank of America seriously faltering and pushing up the cost of funds and stifling lending appetites.

I make no apologies therefore for suggesting that the next few months could well represent one of the best opportunities to purchase or remortgage. The remortgage benefits are obvious as rates are so low.

On the purchase side the lack of stock is obviously an issue, but whilst this is keeping values steady the gap between vendor aspirations and actual purchase prices seems to be easing. There are also more affordable rates at higher Loan to Values that will help first time buyers.

It will be interesting to see what the rest of this year holds, but I for one will continue to top up my half-full glass.

Not that inflation is worrying the Bank of England as all 9 members of their committee that sets interest rates decided unanimously to keep rates on hold last month. This represents a small sea-change as at one stage at least 3 of the members were voting for an immediate rise, (although the main protagonist calling for rises has now left the committee of course).

The evidence of slowing growth and the issues in the financial markets, coupled with reports that suggest home finances fell for 40% of households in August, have been enough to put back rate rises to next year, if not beyond.

The biggest discussion point now is whether Quantitative Easing, the much heralded QE3, will be seen at some stage soon, with even some speculating that Bank Base Rate will be cut even further.

Talk of “a lost decade” and a “Japanese era” are being whispered with growing concern as has the much dreaded term “Stagflation”. The Wikipedia definition is that this “is a situation in which the inflation rate is high and the economic growth rate is low. It raises a dilemma for economic policy since actions designed to lower inflation may worsen economic growth and vice versa.”

The issues that such a period can cause are often seen as more difficult than dealing with straightforward inflation. However, whether or not we do indeed fall into a new recession, or whether this is just actually a continuation of the first one, it is what it is.

All this means that at present mortgage rates continue to be ridiculously low and the financial cost of purchasing a property, especially compared to renting, remains more affordable than it has been for a long time, (as long as you can raise that much needed deposit of course).

On the back of these low rates, especially the longer-term ones, we are seeing a steady increase in remortgaging, after all, when you can fix for 4 years at 2.99% or for 5 years at 3.39% for example, the benefits in years 3, 4 and 5 could potentially be massive.

This was contradicted by a Rightmove report that stated that First-Time numbers were dropping seriously, with only 23% of those looking to buy in the next 12 months being first timers, whilst 7 out of the 11 UK regions now in “first-time buyer blackspot” territory. The exception was of course London, which was still holding up.

Summoned to the BBC on Saturday to try to explain this, my view is that whilst the way the media report these stories sometimes blurs the differences, they are actually measuring different things, with the CML looking at actual loans taken last month and Rightmove looking at those who intend to buy.

So, having just come out of a more active period, which is reflected in the CML stats. for last month, we are now entering a quieter stretch, with the summer lull exacerbated by the financial situation in recent weeks. Therefore, the forward-looking Rightmove stats. are also not so surprising.

In other words, both surveys are correct but you can see how the average consumer is easily confused when faced with contradictory headlines on separate days.

There is some definite good news however, with Halifax indicating that first-time buyer affordability is at its highest since 2003.

On top of this, Moneyfacts has reported that the number of products available at higher Loan-To-Values, (LTV’s) are the highest since the crises began. In February 2009 there were just 3 products available at 95% LTV, now there are 35; whilst the number of 90% LTV products are up from a low of 71 to reach 275, representing a good deal of choice.

The cost of such products have also steadily reduced over the past few months and whilst they may appear expensive at first glance compared to the low Bank of England Base Rate, historically speaking these are still competitive deals.

Whilst affordability and choice seem to be improving the issue is still the number of properties available and the number of lenders who, whilst advertising the higher LTV products, make it difficult to actually obtain them.

The news headlines are screaming from this morning papers that all is not well, traders are pictured with head-in-hands alongside graphs dropping off a cliff and Mr Peston is everywhere again – sounds like a preview of Credit Crunch 2 – Revenge of the Markets?

Looking back at the blog postings that were written during the heady days of the 1st crises there are many similarities. Back then the speculation went from bank to bank until the pressure became too much and one by one banks were rescued. There was then a brief lull, some began to believe we were out of the woods and then there was Lehman’s.

The question is are we now seeing the same in the Eurozone? Speculation has heaped enormous pressures on the “outlying” Euro countries and one by one they have been bailed out, but this cannot go on indefinitely. So which country will emerge as the Lehman’s’ of this crises?

The European Central Bank seems to be spinning round in ever decreasing circles, last month raising interest rates and this month buying bonds, or rather saying it is buying bonds, but rumours abound that they are not showing their faith in the crucial countries of Italy & Spain. As the interest rates of those nations bonds edge towards the 7% level, the need for a bailout of almost unfathomable proportions draws nearer.

As each country totters closer to the edge so the financial pressure intensifies on the big two, France and Germany, and it seems their citizens are not prepared to finance their European partners indefinitely.

What they are seeing are other nations accepting their dosh whilst the politicians struggle to push through the reforms needed to ease the pressure, through a combination of public backlash, political infighting and just plain incompetence.

The very future of the Euro is on a knife-edge and swaying in a Force 9 gale.

But there is perhaps a more serious issue from across the pond. The USA is struggling and is on the brink of dropping back into a recession that threatens to drag the rest of the world with it. Again, party politics is playing its part with a group of extremists known as the Tea Party wreaking havoc.

If the US proves to be the Lehman’s’ , well, things will get tough for a while!

You could say that all of this is the markets revenge. Revenge for not being allowed to run its natural course and wreak even more havoc, stemmed by bailouts, handouts and the printing of lots of money.

As the irrepressible Robert Peston writes in his blog, “The overall volume of indebtedness in the economy is … still with us – although it has been shuffled from financial sector to public sector. And if you took the view four years ago that the quantum of debt in the system was unsustainably large, then you would argue that by propping up the banks, the day of reckoning was being postponed, not cancelled.”

As an excellent Newsnight debate last night all agreed, “the problem is the politics”. They have to get involved, they have to do something, but their very actions have a resultant effect.

So whilst many fear a credit crunch emerging out of Southern Europe the issue is whether this spreads across the globe once more. Whether or not we dip into recession again is hardly the main issue as for the average person it feels like we have never come out of it, but if banks do start to clam up again, more so than now, it will hurt.

The big difference this time is that Libor rates have barely moved. This is a good sign, as a rise in Libor can be seen as a key indication that something is very wrong.

So whilst it is not time to panic just yet, it is time for politicians’ to stop the “politics” – a big ask I know.

Meanwhile property prices in the UK continue to strengthen according to today’s report by Halifax, with bricks and mortar looking to be a somewhat safe haven in the current storm. Although banking shares are being battered once more, UK lenders still seem keen to lend and whilst mortgage rates are at an all time low, well, you can draw your own conclusions.

Now, where’s that Gordon Brown when you need him?