Someone told me the other day that I don’t seem to be as controversial as I used to be. I don’t think that is strictly true but maybe I have mellowed slightly now I am in a better work environment. I don’t generally believe in being controversial for the sake of it just to get headlines, but perhaps not being as young or as angry as I used to be has dampened my revolutionary ardour?
I must try harder.
Anyway, I was going to write a bit about fixed rates and the fact that I still think not enough people are taking them.
We are now entering a particularly interesting phase in both the mortgage and property markets, as the economy teeters on the brink of either recovery or a double–dip recession. Whilst economists argue over the immediate future and politicians hit the campaign trail in earnest, the general public may be forgiven for feeling a little left out as in all honesty it is their every day experience that really matters.
Let’s be honest, I am sure no-one expected to see that the Bank of England Monetary Policy Committee, (MPC), had suddenly raised rates from their current 0.5% level, although some commentators have been a little jittery with inflation nudging 3%.
What is more interesting is that not only have the MPC decided to take a pause in their campaign of Quantitative Easing, £200 billion seems to have been enough of a spending spree for now at least, but you could argue that Bank Base has now entered a new phase – I call it “the expectation phase”. This is where many people expect a change but are not quite sure when and it is this expectation that can be a driver for all manner of decisions.
There has been alot of press recently about the fact tracker rate products are more “popular” than fixed rates and whilst this is undoubtedly the case, could this be a big problem in the making?
It is of course no surprise that in recent times the popularity of the fixed rate product has waned as people come to terms with the financial environment. The “as cheap as possible please” line has been even more popular than usual as not only have many clients expected that Bank Base will stay low, but also that low tracker rates now are a shot in the arm to many, helping to keep the wolf from the door.
Today’s inflation figures, rising dramatically to 2.9%, could well bring to an end the ‘rate complacency’ we have seen among borrowers over the past year or so.
Whilst there are suggestions that this spike in inflation has been expected and is merely temporary, it is unlikely to drop off sharply if recovery does continue to grow and will undoubtedly put pressure on the Bank of England to seriously consider finally raising interest rates.
This is a real shot across the bows for borrowers, many of whom are quietly banking on a low interest rate environment in the short term. But this is a risky game to play.
Andrew Montlake, Communications Director at Coreco and ‘Mortgage Personality of the Year 2008’, gives his views — honest and no holds barred — on the latest developments within the mortgage and property markets.
