16th March 2011
The other night I watched the excellent “Wonders of The Universe” with Prof. Brian Cox, (the thinking woman’s crumpet), and learnt a new term that I thought was apt; Entropy.
This is especially important, as I am sure you all know, in the 2nd Law of Thermodynamics that crudely speaking suggests that time moves on in one direction and change is inevitable. These processes reduce the state of order of the initial systems, and therefore entropy is an expression of disorder or randomness.
The universe generally, it follows, by its very nature has a tendency to increased entropy which means in the end everything will break down and through chaos return to the same state. This explains why time always moves in one direction.
As this is all inevitable, human beings have only a speck of time, (in the grand scheme of things), to make their mark.
So what has this possibly got to do with anything? Well, one cursory glance at the housing and financial markets, certainly recently, shows this seems to hold more than a grain a truth.
We have been through some extraordinary changes and, by all reports, it looks as though the mortgage market, (especially the broker market), is set to change further over the coming weeks. When change happens it is time to think carefully about how you can make your mark.
Many brokers have already adapted to the new environment, some exceedingly well, some disastrously, but for the rest of this year there is still work to be done for the majority.
This year was always going to be key year, a time for deals to be done and processes to be refined before the inevitable recovery of 2012 and beyond. As I have said before, most of those who really make money in the boom times, learnt and prepared during the previous slump.
Take the housing market. The Institute of Public Policy Research reported that by 2025 there is likely to be a shortfall of 750,000 homes across England, with London bearing the brunt with a shortage of almost half this figure.
Unless the Government and house-builders respond with a dramatic rebuilding campaign, which looks unlikely, the issue looks set to be exacerbated each year. As the economy improves and the aging population continues demand will further outstrip supply and of course prices will continue to rise.
The crude, yet simple message this leaves us with is that those that buy now will be in a much better position in the future to maintain their footing on the housing ladder.
Whether or not change is good or bad is really just a matter of perception. All change is inevitable and therefore must be viewed as an opportunity. Wasting time complaining about it gets you absolutely nowhere.
If this means finally making that move, trying something new and taking a chance rather than sticking with the same old routine, then all the better.
So as we all seem to be exhibiting increasing entropy, the next few months and years promise to be a hell of a ride.
Still confused? – well maybe I should have just left it to Prof. Cox below :-
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Andrew Montlake, Director and Spokesperson for Coreco, gives his honest and forthright views on the mortgage market, economy and all things property related. Monty was voted "Mortgage Personality of the year 2008", "Best Press Spokesperson" in 2011 and is the current holder of the British Mortgage Awards “Best Marketeer” title. Expect expert analysis, delivered in a down to earth style with a side helping of exuberance.